Manual Introduction

Anticipatory action is increasingly recognized as a key solution to reducing the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events; early actions help people and organizations such as National Societies build resilience to future shocks by better understanding risk and transforming this risk information into action before a disaster strikes.

Building on decades of experience in disaster preparedness, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and many National Societies have pioneered the development of anticipatory action approaches such as Forecast-based Financing (FbF) since 2014. In 2018, IFRC launched the Anticipatory Pillar of the Disaster Response Emergency Fund, a fund to provide reliable and predictable financing for National Societies to implement anticipatory action.

Why anticipatory action?

According to the World Disaster Report (WDR 2020), in the past ten years, 83% of all disasters triggered by natural hazards were caused by extreme weather and climate-related events, such as floods, storms and heatwaves. At the same time, forecasts and early warning for those events are improving, providing information about where and with what magnitude a hazard will strike. Through anticipatory action plans, early warning information is linked to early action, allowing timely implementation of actions before a disaster strikes. While anticipatory action originates from addressing weather-related events, the concept is gradually being expanded to non-weather hazards, such as disease outbreaks and the impacts of population movement.

It is important to note that anticipatory action is not a substitute for longer-term investment in risk reduction. Anticipatory action aims at strengthening the capacity to manage risks and at reducing residual risk not addressed by disaster risk reduction efforts.

What is anticipatory action?

Anticipatory action is defined as acting ahead of predicted hazards (both weather and non-weather) to prevent or reduce acute humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold. Anticipatory action serves as an umbrella term that encompasses different approaches such as Forecast based-Financing, Forecast-based Action or Early Warning Early Action.

What are the common characteristics of anticipatory action?

Even though anticipatory action can be implemented differently across organizations and with different approaches, methodologies, and scales, three key parameters are generally agreed upon:

1. Protective intent: Early actions aim to prevent or mitigate the humanitarian impact of a forecasted hazard.
2. Time factor: Anticipatory action is implemented in the window of opportunity after an early warning, forecast or pre-disaster risk assessment is available but before the hazard impacts fully materialize.
3. Risk-informed triggers: Early actions are triggered based on a forecast and / or collaborative analyses.

See toolbox below for further readings, especially the A short overview of anticipatory action.

When is anticipatory action implemented?

Where is anticipatory action implemented?

To get an overview of anticipatory action initiatives around the world, please visit the Anticipation Hub. The Anticipation Hub is a platform to facilitate knowledge exchange, learning, guidance, and advocacy around anticipatory action both virtually and in-person.

How can anticipatory action be delivered and financed?

Anticipatory Action can take different forms depending on the institutional and operational context. The following three approaches are commonly used within and beyond the Red Cross Red Crescent Network to develop and deliver anticipatory action:

• Formal frameworks and Anticipatory Action Plans: These frameworks clearly define risk analyses, triggers, and pre-agreed actions, and are often connected to specific financing mechanisms such as the Early Action Protocols under the Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF) of the International Federation of Red Cross Red Crescent Societies or the United Nations’ Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF). This manual focuses on the development of  Early Action Protocols as the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement’s approach to formal anticipatory action frameworks (see below).
• Government-led and community-based initiatives: In many countries, anticipatory action is driven by national or local authorities, or by communities themselves. For example, in the Philippines, local government units are building the capacity to mobilize and allocate funds for anticipatory action at the local level.
• Integration into broader humanitarian and Disaster Risk Reduction programming: Anticipatory action can also be embedded within existing projects, using flexible funding mechanisms such as pooled funds, crisis modifiers or the imminent DREF. This allows for early action to protect development gains when a project area is likely to be impacted by an imminent hazard.

How does the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement implement anticipatory action?

Forecast-based Financing (FbF) is a methodology that enables National Red Cross Red Crescent Societies to access humanitarian funding for early action based on a combination of forecast information and risk and impact analysis. FbF allows National Societies to anticipate disasters, and prevent or mitigate their impacts, with the aim of saving lives and protecting livelihoods. For early actions to be implemented quickly and efficiently before disaster strikes, funds are allocated automatically when a predetermined threshold is reached. The key to this is the Early Action Protocol (EAP) and the simplified EAP (sEAP), which clearly defines when and where to act as well as who will do what.

What are the key strategy documents for anticipatory action in the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement?

• IFRC Operational Framework for Anticipatory Action 2021-2025 (see toolbox)
• Council of delegates resolution Strengthening anticipatory action in the Movement: Our way forward (June 2022) (see toolbox)

The FbF Manual is a step-by-step guide for National Societies and partners to implement Forecast-based Financing (FbF). It was developed for National Societies, government authorities who are engaged in disaster risk management, hydro-meteorological agencies, humanitarians, academics and the communities themselves to prepare for enhanced Early Warning Early Action (EWEA).

For most National Societies, the objective of developing a full or simplified Early Action Protocol (EAP) is to access funds from the IFRC’s DREF and assist people in mitigating disaster impacts before a hazard strikes.  The aim of this Manual is to guide National Societies and their partners through the process. Please have the following in mind when developing your FbF programme:

• This Manual is not linear. Though it is organized in chapters and steps, activities will run in parallel, and you may need to revisit certain chapters at different points in the process.
• There is no standard on how long each individual step takes. This will depend on the context, the National Society and the partners.
• The Manual addresses you as a reader, but “you” may be an FbF delegate, a project coordinator, a disaster risk management officer or an FbF project team.
• The Manual is based on experience with weather-related hazards (e.g. floods, tropical storms and heatwaves). However, the methodology is also applicable to non-weather-related hazards, such as epidemics and locust plagues as well as the impacts of population movement.
• s/EAPs are only one way to implement anticipatory action and access funds via the IFRC-DREF’s Anticipatory Pillar. A National Society may access a DREF allocation for imminent crises to provide the necessary assistance to at-risk communities. Additionally, National Societies may support government or community-led initiatives. This Manual will focus on s/EAPs as the Movement’s approach to formalized anticipatory action frameworks.

The most important EAP documents, which are discussed in detail in chapter 4 , include the following:

• templates for the full EAP and simplified EAP;
• EAP and simplified EAP criteria.

These can be accessed in the FbF Manual library under Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF).